California 45th — House 2026 General Election
The California 45th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model favors Democrat Derek Tran at 72%, ahead of Republican Tom Vo at 28%. Derek Tran is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Derek Tran (incumbent) — 72%
- Tom Vo — 28%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.