California 45th — House 2026 General Election
The California 45th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Democrat Derek Tran the heavy favorite at 100%, with Republican Amy Phan West at 0%. Derek Tran is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Derek Tran (incumbent) — 100%
- Amy Phan West — 0%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.