California 43th — House 2026 Primary
The California 43th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model makes Democrat Maxine Waters the clear favorite at 78%, ahead of Republican Cristian Morales at 8% in a 4-candidate field. Maxine Waters is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Maxine Waters (incumbent) — 78%
- Cristian Morales — 8%
- Myla Rahman — 8%
- David Sedlik — 6%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.