California 42th — House 2026 Primary
The California 42th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model favors Democrat Robert Garcia at 67%, ahead of Republican Brian Burley at 12% in a 5-candidate field. Robert Garcia is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Robert Garcia (incumbent) — 67%
- Brian Burley — 12%
- Noah Von Blom — 12%
- Larisa Vermeulen — 6%
- Long Pham — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.