California 36th — House 2026 Primary
The California 36th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model makes Democrat Ted Lieu the clear favorite at 79%, ahead of Republican Melissa Toomim at 7% in a 6-candidate field. Ted Lieu is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Ted Lieu (incumbent) — 79%
- Melissa Toomim — 7%
- Houston Brignano — 4%
- Marianne Shamma — 3%
- Rustin Knudtson — 3%
- Frederick Reardon — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.