California 36th — House 2026 Primary

The California 36th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model favors Democrat Ted Lieu at 73%, ahead of Democrat Marianne Shamma at 11% in a 6-candidate field. Ted Lieu is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Ted Lieu (incumbent) — 73%
  2. Marianne Shamma — 11%
  3. Melissa Toomim — 6%
  4. Houston Brignano — 4%
  5. Rustin Knudtson — 3%
  6. Frederick Reardon — 3%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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