California 33th — House 2026 Primary
The California 33th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model makes Democrat Pete Aguilar the clear favorite at 77%, ahead of Republican Eugene Weems at 6% in a 6-candidate field. Pete Aguilar is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Pete Aguilar (incumbent) — 77%
- Eugene Weems — 6%
- Ernest "Ernie" Richter — 6%
- Tom Herman — 4%
- Stephanie Vargas — 4%
- Antonis P. Christodoulou — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.