California 24th — House 2026 Primary
The California 24th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model has Democrat Salud Carbajal narrowly ahead of Republican Bob Smith, 52% to 33% in a 4-candidate field. Salud Carbajal is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Salud Carbajal (incumbent) — 52%
- Bob Smith — 33%
- Helena Pasquarella — 9%
- Sarah Bacon — 6%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.