California 23th — House 2026 Primary
The California 23th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model favors Republican Jay Obernolte at 62%, ahead of Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge at 23% in a 5-candidate field. Jay Obernolte is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jay Obernolte (incumbent) — 62%
- Tessa Lynn Hodge — 23%
- Charles Patrick Wallis — 6%
- radiologist — 5%
- Karsten Scott Nicholson — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.