California 21th — House 2026 Primary
The California 21th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model favors Democrat Jim Costa at 62%, ahead of Republican Kyle Kirkland at 18% in a 6-candidate field. Jim Costa is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jim Costa (incumbent) — 62%
- Kyle Kirkland — 18%
- Lorenzo Rios — 11%
- Lance Kruse — 4%
- Eric Garcia — 3%
- Lourin Hubbard — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.