California 21th — House 2026 General Election
The California 21th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Democrat Jim Costa the clear favorite at 82%, ahead of Republican Lorenzo Rios at 18%. Jim Costa is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jim Costa (incumbent) — 82%
- Lorenzo Rios — 18%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.