California 16th — House 2026 Primary
The California 16th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model favors Democrat Sam Liccardo at 65%, ahead of Jotham Stein at 23% in a 4-candidate field. Sam Liccardo is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Sam Liccardo (incumbent) — 65%
- Jotham Stein — 23%
- Peter Sundin Soulé — 6%
- Kevin Johnson — 6%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.