California 15th — House 2026 Primary
The California 15th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model makes Democrat Kevin Mullin the clear favorite at 79%, ahead of Jim Garrity at 7% in a 5-candidate field. Kevin Mullin is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Kevin Mullin (incumbent) — 79%
- Jim Garrity — 7%
- Mantosh Kumar — 5%
- Charles Hoelter — 5%
- Anthony Dang — 5%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.