California 10th — House 2026 Primary

The California 10th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model makes Democrat Mark DeSaulnier the clear favorite at 81%, ahead of Republican Katherine Piccinni at 4% in a 7-candidate field. Mark DeSaulnier is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Mark DeSaulnier (incumbent) — 81%
2. Katherine Piccinni — 4%
3. Angela Griffiths — 4%
4. Jeff Frese — 3%
5. Joshua Hamilton — 3%
6. Mitchell Maisler — 3%
7. Bob Rowland — 3%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model