California 8th — House 2026 Primary
The California 8th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model favors Democrat John Garamendi at 57%, ahead of Democrat Nicolas Carjuzaa at 29% in a 4-candidate field. John Garamendi is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- John Garamendi (incumbent) — 57%
- Nicolas Carjuzaa — 29%
- Rudy Recile — 7%
- Aaron Rowden — 7%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.