California 5th — House 2026 Primary
The California 5th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model has Republican Tom McClintock narrowly ahead of Democrat Michael Masuda, 52% to 37% in a 4-candidate field. Tom McClintock is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising and Michael Masuda has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Tom McClintock (incumbent) — 52%
- Michael Masuda — 37%
- Michael Barkley — 6%
- Dan Stroud — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.