California 4th — House 2026 General Election
The California 4th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: Democrat Eric Jones edges Democrat Mike Thompson, 50% to 50%. Eric Jones leads the field in reported fundraising, Mike Thompson has the most tracked endorsements, and incumbent Mike Thompson trails in the forecast. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Eric Jones — 50%
- Mike Thompson (incumbent) — 50%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.