California 3rd — House 2026 Primary
The California 3rd — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model favors Democrat Ami Bera at 57%, ahead of Democrat Heidi Hall at 14% in a 8-candidate field. Ami Bera is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Ami Bera (incumbent) — 57%
- Heidi Hall — 14%
- Robb Tucker — 13%
- Christine Bish — 4%
- Christopher Bennett — 3%
- Lyndon "Pacey" Cervantes — 3%
- Chris Richardson — 3%
- Laura Koscki — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.