California 3rd — House 2026 Primary

The California 3rd — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model has Democrat Ami Bera narrowly ahead of Democrat Heidi Hall, 48% to 33% in a 8-candidate field. Ami Bera leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Ami Bera — 48%
2. Heidi Hall — 33%
3. Robb Tucker — 8%
4. Christine Bish — 3%
5. Christopher Bennett — 2%
6. Lyndon "Pacey" Cervantes — 2%
7. Chris Richardson — 2%
8. Laura Koscki — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model