California 1st — House 2026 General Election
The California 1st — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model favors Republican James Gallagher at 69%, ahead of Democrat Mike McGuire at 31%. Mike McGuire leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- James Gallagher — 69%
- Mike McGuire — 31%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.