California 1st — House 2026 General Election
The California 1st — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican James Gallagher edges Democrat Mike McGuire, 50% to 50%. Mike McGuire leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- James Gallagher — 50%
- Mike McGuire — 50%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.