Arizona 5th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Arizona 5th — House dem primary is scheduled for July 21, 2026. The model favors Chris James at 60%, ahead of Elizabeth Lee at 20% in a 4-candidate field. Chris James leads the field in reported fundraising. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Chris James — 60%
- Elizabeth Lee — 20%
- Brian Hualde — 11%
- Blake Bracht — 10%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.