Arizona 5th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Arizona 5th — House dem primary is scheduled for July 21, 2026. The model has Elizabeth Lee narrowly ahead of Chris James, 46% to 36% in a 4-candidate field. Elizabeth Lee leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Elizabeth Lee — 46%
- Chris James — 36%
- Brian Hualde — 10%
- Blake Bracht — 8%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.