Arizona 4th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Arizona 4th — House dem primary is scheduled for July 21, 2026. The model makes Greg Stanton the heavy favorite at 96%, with Kai Newkirk at 4%. Greg Stanton is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Greg Stanton (incumbent) — 96%
- Kai Newkirk — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.