Arizona 1st — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Arizona 1st — House rep primary is scheduled for July 21, 2026. The model makes Jay Feely the clear favorite at 82%, ahead of John Trobough at 14% in a 3-candidate field. Jay Feely leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jay Feely — 82%
- John Trobough — 14%
- Joseph Chaplik — 5%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.