Arizona 1st — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Arizona 1st — House dem primary is scheduled for July 21, 2026. The model sees a close race: Marlene Galán-Woods edges Jonathan Treble, 41% to 38% in a 6-candidate field. Jonathan Treble leads the field in reported fundraising and Marlene Galán-Woods has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Marlene Galán-Woods — 41%
- Jonathan Treble — 38%
- Amish Shah — 15%
- Rick McCartney — 3%
- Mark Robert Gordon — 2%
- Victor Weintraub — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.