Arizona 1st — House 2026 Dem Primary

The Arizona 1st — House dem primary is scheduled for July 21, 2026. The model favors Amish Shah at 65%, ahead of Marlene Galán-Woods at 19% in a 6-candidate field. Amish Shah leads the field in reported fundraising and Marlene Galán-Woods has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Amish Shah — 65%
  2. Marlene Galán-Woods — 19%
  3. Jonathan Treble — 10%
  4. Rick McCartney — 2%
  5. Mark Robert Gordon — 2%
  6. Victor Weintraub — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model