Arizona 1st — House 2026 Dem Primary

The Arizona 1st — House dem primary is scheduled for July 21, 2026. The model sees a close race: Amish Shah edges Marlene Galán-Woods, 44% to 37% in a 6-candidate field. Jonathan Treble leads the field in reported fundraising and Marlene Galán-Woods has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Amish Shah — 44%
  2. Marlene Galán-Woods — 37%
  3. Jonathan Treble — 15%
  4. Rick McCartney — 2%
  5. Mark Robert Gordon — 1%
  6. Victor Weintraub — 1%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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