Arkansas 4th — House 2026 Dem Primary

The Arkansas 4th — House dem primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes James Russell the heavy favorite at 96%, with Steven O'Donnell at 4%. James Russell leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. James Russell — 96%
  2. Steven O'Donnell — 4%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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