Arkansas 2nd — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Arkansas 2nd — House rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes French Hill the heavy favorite at 96%, with Chase McDowell at 4%. French Hill is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- French Hill (incumbent) — 96%
- Chase McDowell — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.