Alabama 4th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Alabama 4th — House rep primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026. The model makes Robert Aderholt the heavy favorite at 96%, with Tommy Barnes at 4%. Robert Aderholt is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Robert Aderholt (incumbent) — 96%
- Tommy Barnes — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.