Alabama 1st — House 2026 Rep Primary

The Alabama 1st — House rep primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026. The model sees a close race: Rhett Marques edges Jerry Carl, 43% to 43% in a 8-candidate field. Rhett Marques leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Rhett Marques — 43%
  2. Jerry Carl — 43%
  3. Joshua McKee — 2%
  4. John Mills — 2%
  5. James Richardson — 2%
  6. Jimmy Dees — 2%
  7. Lucas Burger — 2%
  8. Austin Sidwell — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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