Alabama 1st — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Alabama 1st — House rep primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026. The model makes Rhett Marques the clear favorite at 77%, ahead of Jerry Carl at 6% in a 8-candidate field. Rhett Marques leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Rhett Marques — 77%
- Jerry Carl — 6%
- Joshua McKee — 4%
- Austin Sidwell — 3%
- John Mills — 3%
- James Richardson — 3%
- Jimmy Dees — 3%
- Lucas Burger — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.