Alabama 1st — House 2026 Rep Primary

The Alabama 1st — House rep primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026. The model has Jerry Carl narrowly ahead of Rhett Marques, 55% to 33% in a 8-candidate field. Jerry Carl leads the field in reported fundraising and Rhett Marques has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Jerry Carl — 55%
2. Rhett Marques — 33%
3. Joshua McKee — 2%
4. John Mills — 2%
5. James Richardson — 2%
6. Jimmy Dees — 2%
7. Lucas Burger — 2%
8. Austin Sidwell — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated September 11, 2026.

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