Arizona Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kyrsten Sinema a 46% chance of winning the Arizona Senate 2018 primary. Kyrsten Sinema won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Kyrsten Sinema — 46% model odds (won)
  2. Martha Mcsally — 37% model odds
  3. Angela Green — 17% model odds
  4. Barry Hess — 0% model odds
  5. Jonathan Ringham B — 0% model odds
  6. Michael Decarlo — 0% model odds
  7. Sheila Bilyeu — 0% model odds
  8. Robert Kay — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts