Arizona House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Paul Gosar a 50% chance of winning the Arizona House 2018 primary. Paul Gosar won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Paul Gosar — 50% model odds (won)
2. Haryaksha Gregor Knauer — 43% model odds
3. David Brill — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts