Arizona House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ann Kirkpatrick an 81% chance of winning the Arizona House 2018 primary. Ann Kirkpatrick won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Ann Kirkpatrick — 81% model odds (won)
  2. Lea Marquez Peterson — 19% model odds
  3. Jordan Flayer — 0% model odds
  4. Melissa Grable — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts