Texas House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Lamar Smith a 69% chance of winning the Texas House 2016 primary. Lamar Smith won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Lamar Smith — 69% model odds (won)
  2. Antonio "Tony" Diaz — 31% model odds
  3. Tom Wakely — 0% model odds
  4. Mark Loewe — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts