Texas House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Joaquin Castro a 95% chance of winning the Texas House 2016 primary. Joaquin Castro won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Joaquin Castro — 95% model odds (won)
  2. Paul Pipkin — 5% model odds
  3. Jeffrey C. Blunt — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts