Pennsylvania Senate 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Pat Toomey a 50% chance of winning the Pennsylvania Senate 2016 primary. Pat Toomey won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Pat Toomey — 50% model odds (won)
2. Katie Mcginty — 50% model odds
3. Edward T., Iii Clifford — 0% model odds
4. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts