New York House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Chris Collins a 28% chance of winning the New York House 2016 primary. Chris Collins won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Chris Collins — 28% model odds (won)
2. Chris Collins — 28% model odds
3. Chris Collins — 28% model odds
4. Chris Collins — 8% model odds
5. Diana K. Kastenbaum — 8% model odds
6. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts