New York House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John M. Katko a 33% chance of winning the New York House 2016 primary. John M. Katko won, matching the model's top pick.

1. John M. Katko — 33% model odds (won)
2. John M. Katko — 33% model odds
3. John M. Katko — 33% model odds
4. John M. Katko — 0% model odds
5. Colleen Deacon — 0% model odds
6. Colleen Deacon — 0% model odds
7. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts