New York House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Paul D. Tonko a 50% chance of winning the New York House 2016 primary. Paul D. Tonko won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Paul D. Tonko — 50% model odds (won)
2. Paul D. Tonko — 50% model odds
3. Paul D. Tonko — 0% model odds
4. Paul D. Tonko — 0% model odds
5. Joe Vitollo — 0% model odds
6. Joe Vitollo — 0% model odds
7. Joe Vitollo — 0% model odds
8. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts