New York House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Adriano Espaillat a 69% chance of winning the New York House 2016 primary. Adriano Espaillat won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Adriano Espaillat — 69% model odds (won)
  2. Robert A., Jr. Evans — 31% model odds
  3. Robert A., Jr. Evans — 0% model odds
  4. Daniel Vila Rivera — 0% model odds
  5. Scott Lloyd Fenstermaker — 0% model odds
  6. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts