New York House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Dan Donovan a 27% chance of winning the New York House 2016 primary. Dan Donovan won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Dan Donovan — 27% model odds (won)
2. Dan Donovan — 27% model odds
3. Dan Donovan — 27% model odds
4. Henry J. Bardel — 13% model odds
5. Dan Donovan — 7% model odds
6. Richard A. Reichard — 0% model odds
7. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts