New York House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jerrold L. Nadler a 90% chance of winning the New York House 2016 primary. Jerrold L. Nadler won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Jerrold L. Nadler — 90% model odds (won)
2. Philip Rosenthal — 5% model odds
3. Philip Rosenthal — 5% model odds
4. Jerrold L. Nadler — 0% model odds
5. Jerrold L. Nadler — 0% model odds
6. Philip Rosenthal — 0% model odds
7. Philip Rosenthal — 0% model odds
8. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts