New Jersey House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Bonnie Watson Coleman a 69% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2016 primary. Bonnie Watson Coleman won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Bonnie Watson Coleman — 69% model odds (won)
  2. Robert Shapiro — 31% model odds
  3. Steven J. Uccio — 0% model odds
  4. R. Edward Forchion — 0% model odds
  5. Thomas Fitzpatrick — 0% model odds
  6. Steven Welzer — 0% model odds
  7. Michael R. Bollentin — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts