New Jersey House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tom Macarthur a 100% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2016 primary. Tom Macarthur won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Tom Macarthur — 100% model odds (won)
  2. Frederick John Lavergne — 0% model odds
  3. Lawrence W., Jr. Berlinski — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts