Missouri House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Sam Graves a 50% chance of winning the Missouri House 2016 primary. Sam Graves won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Sam Graves — 50% model odds (won)
2. Mike Diel — 50% model odds
3. David M. Blackwell — 0% model odds
4. Russ Lee Monchil — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts