Minnesota House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Stewart Mills an 89% chance of winning the Minnesota House 2016 primary. Rick Nolan won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Stewart Mills — 89% model odds
2. Rick Nolan — 11% model odds (won)
3. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts