Minnesota House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jim Hagedorn a 68% chance of winning the Minnesota House 2016 primary. Tim Walz won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Jim Hagedorn — 68% model odds
  2. Tim Walz — 32% model odds (won)
  3. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts