Michigan House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Paul Clements an 88% chance of winning the Michigan House 2016 primary. Fred Upton won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Paul Clements — 88% model odds
  2. Fred Upton — 12% model odds (won)
  3. Lorence Wenke — 0% model odds
  4. Richard Miller Overton — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts