Indiana House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Luke Messer a 100% chance of winning the Indiana House 2016 primary. Luke Messer won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Luke Messer — 100% model odds (won)
  2. Barry Welsh — 0% model odds
  3. Rich Turvey — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts