Florida House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John Mica a 69% chance of winning the Florida House 2016 primary. Stephanie Murphy won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. John Mica — 69% model odds
2. Stephanie Murphy — 31% model odds (won)
3. Mike Plaskon — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts