Arizona House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kyrsten Sinema a 50% chance of winning the Arizona House 2016 primary. Kyrsten Sinema won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Kyrsten Sinema — 50% model odds (won)
2. Dave Giles — 50% model odds
3. Cary Dolego — 0% model odds
4. Axel Bello — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts