Arizona House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Martha Mcsally a 95% chance of winning the Arizona House 2016 primary. Martha Mcsally won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Martha Mcsally — 95% model odds (won)
  2. Matt Heinz — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts