AS House 2016 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Aumua Amata a 100% chance of winning the AS House 2016 primary. Aumua Amata won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Aumua Amata — 100% model odds (won)
  2. Vaitinasa Salu Hunkin-Finau — 0% model odds
  3. Paepaetele Mapu S. Jamias — 0% model odds
  4. Meleagi Suitonu-Chapman — 0% model odds
  5. Tim Jones — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts