Virginia House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Dave A. Brat a 25% chance of winning the Virginia House 2014 primary. Dave A. Brat won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Dave A. Brat — 25% model odds
  2. John K. "Jack" Trammell — 25% model odds
  3. Dave A. Brat — 25% model odds (won)
  4. John K. "Jack" Trammell — 25% model odds
  5. James A., Jr. Carr — 0% model odds
  6. Scattered — 0% model odds
  7. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts