New York House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John M. Katko a 47% chance of winning the New York House 2014 primary. John M. Katko won, matching the model's top pick.

1. John M. Katko — 47% model odds (won)
2. John M. Katko — 47% model odds
3. John M. Katko — 5% model odds
4. Daniel B. Maffei — 0% model odds
5. Daniel B. Maffei — 0% model odds
6. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts